Industry Trends
Industrial Trends
[2024 May] Industry Trends
2024.05.15
All Industries
Production in the mining and manufacturing industries started growing again in February due to increased production of semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, as well as increases in production in a number of industries, including automotive (△1.5 in Jan. 2024 → 3.1 percent in Feb. 2024). Service industry production increased (△0.2 in Jan. 2024 → 0.7 percent in Feb. 2024) thanks to improvements in face-to-face services, including accommodation and food (5.0 percent), leisure and hospitality (7.4 percent), and transportation and warehousing (1.6 percent). Retail sales fell (1.0 percent in Jan. 2024→ △3.1 percent Feb. 2024) due to declines in durable goods (△3.2 percent) and non-durable goods (△4.8 percent) despite an increase in semi-durable goods (2.4 percent). Capital investment rose sharply month-on-month (+5.9 percent in Jan. 2024 → +10.3 percent in Feb. 2024), led by improvements in transportation equipment (+23.8 percent) and machinery (+6.0 percent). Following the previous month's large gains, completed construction projects decreased in both building construction (△1.8 percent) and civil engineering projects (△2.2 percent), but the sector performed better than expected (13.8 percent in Jan. 2024 → △1.9 percent in Feb. 2024). The cyclical change in the coincident index rose for two straight months, driven by increases in the production of construction and service industries. The cyclical change in the leading index turned upward, supported by increases in inventories, machinery exports, and stock prices. The Korean economy is showing signs of a recovery led by production and exports, and the positive signs are gradually spreading to domestic consumption. However, upside and downside risks remain. On the production side, the rebound in the IT industry, the expectations of a major upward cycle in the semiconductor sector, and the prospect of the global economy making a soft landing are positive. At the same time, geopolitical unrest, supply chain risks, and uncertainties in monetary policies are weighing on the economy. On the spending side (consumption and investment), an increase in international arrivals, a full-fledged provision of EV subsidies, and plans to expand investment in new industries are upside factors, while household debt, real estate project financing (PF) risks, and sluggish construction orders are downside factors.
In February 2024, Korea's industrial activities increased for the fourth consecutive month across industries, showing a more significant sign of an economic recovery.
| Subject | All industries | Mining & manufacturing |
Service | Retail sales | Equipment investment |
Construction completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly Change (%) | ∆1.3 | ∆3.1 | ∆0.7 | ▲3.1 | ∆10.3 | ▲1.9 |
Production in the mining and manufacturing industries started growing again in February due to increased production of semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, as well as increases in production in a number of industries, including automotive (△1.5 in Jan. 2024 → 3.1 percent in Feb. 2024). Service industry production increased (△0.2 in Jan. 2024 → 0.7 percent in Feb. 2024) thanks to improvements in face-to-face services, including accommodation and food (5.0 percent), leisure and hospitality (7.4 percent), and transportation and warehousing (1.6 percent). Retail sales fell (1.0 percent in Jan. 2024→ △3.1 percent Feb. 2024) due to declines in durable goods (△3.2 percent) and non-durable goods (△4.8 percent) despite an increase in semi-durable goods (2.4 percent). Capital investment rose sharply month-on-month (+5.9 percent in Jan. 2024 → +10.3 percent in Feb. 2024), led by improvements in transportation equipment (+23.8 percent) and machinery (+6.0 percent). Following the previous month's large gains, completed construction projects decreased in both building construction (△1.8 percent) and civil engineering projects (△2.2 percent), but the sector performed better than expected (13.8 percent in Jan. 2024 → △1.9 percent in Feb. 2024). The cyclical change in the coincident index rose for two straight months, driven by increases in the production of construction and service industries. The cyclical change in the leading index turned upward, supported by increases in inventories, machinery exports, and stock prices. The Korean economy is showing signs of a recovery led by production and exports, and the positive signs are gradually spreading to domestic consumption. However, upside and downside risks remain. On the production side, the rebound in the IT industry, the expectations of a major upward cycle in the semiconductor sector, and the prospect of the global economy making a soft landing are positive. At the same time, geopolitical unrest, supply chain risks, and uncertainties in monetary policies are weighing on the economy. On the spending side (consumption and investment), an increase in international arrivals, a full-fledged provision of EV subsidies, and plans to expand investment in new industries are upside factors, while household debt, real estate project financing (PF) risks, and sluggish construction orders are downside factors.
※ Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance(moef.go.kr)
Trends by Industry
- Automotive
-
‘February Auto Exports Decreased Year-on-Ear Despite Having Recorded the Second-Largest Volume in History’
→ February exports decreased by 6.2 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year due to base effect and lower production. Despite strong sales of domestic cars, domestic consumption decreased by 0.3 크레이지 슬롯 from a year ago in January as fewer imported vehicles were registered. Production in January increased on a year-on-year basis, driven by higher output from longer operating days and strong exports. Whereas imports of ship parts grew by 35.7 크레이지 슬롯, overall imports decreased by 13.1 크레이지 슬롯 in January, led by a 25.5 크레이지 슬롯 decline in imports of cargo ships.
- Shipbuilding
-
‘Weak Production Indexes Continued, but Exports Rose for Seven Straight Months’
→ In January, production and shipments decreased by 6.9 크레이지 슬롯 and 16.1 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year, respectively, and the capacity utilization rate plunged by 17.9 크레이지 슬롯 despite an increase in production capacity, causing all major production indicators to fall. Despite the decline in production and shipments, exports increased by 27.7 크레이지 슬롯 in February as ships ordered at high prices and high-end offshore plants were delivered. In January, Korea won 38 크레이지 슬롯 of all orders placed around the world and ranked the world’s No. 2, despite uncertainties in the marine transport market caused by high interest rates, the Red Sea crisis, and China’s sluggish economic growth.
- General machinery
-
‘Production Turned Upward and Exports Grew for Ten Straight Months, But Slowed to 1.3 percent’
→ General machinery production increased by 1.3 percent year-on-year in January as domestic consumption and exports performed better. In February, exports grew by 1.2 percent year-on-year, supported by strong exports to the United States and Latin America, while exports to the EU remained slow and those to China, India and the Middle East turned downward. Imports fell by 1.1 percent year-on-year in January as Korean businesses continued cutting back on their capital investment.
- Steel
-
‘Exports Declined due to Falling Unit Prices and Production Continued Growth’
→ In January, production grew by 12.9 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year due to the base effect of weak bar steel production in the same month of the previous year and an increase in demand for sheet metal products resulting from strong auto production. Exports in February fell by 9.9 크레이지 슬롯 from a year ago, affected by weakening export unit prices and fierce competition in the markets of the Middle East and India. In January, imports saw a year-on-year increase of 0.3 크레이지 슬롯 as increased domestic consumption of sheet metal products boosted demands and falling import unit prices in major steel importers pushed import volumes upward.
- Oil refining
-
‘Exports Fell on Lower Unit Prices Resulting from Year-on-Year Declines of Oil Prices and Refining Margins’
→ Production in January increased by 5.5 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year on strong domestic consumption and exports. February exports decreased by 3.9 크레이지 슬롯 from a year ago as unit prices fell due to sliding oil prices and refining margins. In January, production fell by 8.6 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year and shipments decreased slightly by 2.3 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year due to slow exports of parts, while inventories shrunk by 24.3 크레이지 슬롯 from a year ago against strong mobile phone sales. Imports in January saw a year-on-year decrease of 18.6 크레이지 슬롯, mostly in smartphones.
- Wireless communication devices
-
‘February Exports Fell by 16.5 크레이지 슬롯 due to Delayed Increase of Q1 Smartphone Shipments’
→ Smartphone exports increased sharply by 57.5 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year but overall exports of wireless communication devices fell due to a significant 31.9 크레이지 슬롯 decrease in exports of mobile phone parts.
- Semiconductor
-
‘Semiconductor Exports Up for Four Months in a Row’
→ In January, the semiconductor production index increased by 44.1 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year to 137.5 and maintained the sharp growth. February exports reached USD 9.9 billion, up 66.7 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year to record the highest increase since October 2017.
- Display
-
‘Production Increase Driven by Growing Demands for OLEDs’
→ In January, display production increased by 5.1 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year, driven by growing demands for OLEDs. In February, higher panel prices drove display exports upward by 20.2 크레이지 슬롯 year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive month of export growth. The effect of increased OLED production in Q1 for use in tablets is expected to be limited.
* Please note that the latest data available in Statistics Korea are for the previous month in the case of exports and the month prior to the previous one for production.
Verify KIET Email Address
Please enter the security text below
to prevent email collection
Check KIET employee information
Please check the information of the person in charge.
접수완료
연구과제 제안이 접수되었습니다.
접수완료
신청이 접수되었습니다.
Seminars
View Summary
월간 KIET 산업경제
코로나19 발생 이후 제조업 고용 변화: 중간 점검
코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
KIET Check employee information
The following information is provided.
inform@kiet.re.kr
Employee directory access verification
Please complete the CAPTCHA below.
KIET Video
[전지적키에트시점] (Eng sub)심상치 않은
국내 대기업 움직임??
KIET 시점에서 보는 미래 로봇 산업 전망은
어떨까요?
경제전문가가 알려드립니다!
(산업연구원 박상수 실장)