Industry Trends
Korea's industrial activity increased for the second consecutive month in December 2023, suggesting a recovery driven by manufacturing production and exports.
Subject | All industries | Mining & manufacturing |
Service | Retail sales | Equipment investment |
Construction completed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monthly Change (%) | ∆0.3 | ∆0.6 | ∆0.3 | ▲0.8 | ∆5.5 | ▲2.7 |
Production in the mining and manufacturing industry increased in November, driven by improvements in semiconductors (+8.5 percent) on growing demands for high-performance semiconductors and stronger year-end auto production (+4.7 percent). Despite a decline in real estate (△3.7 percent), services production rose by 0.3 percent, with improvements in finance (+4.9 percent), transportation and warehousing (+2.5 percent), and leisure (+3.2 percent). Retail sales decreased by 0.8 percent due to an overall contraction in durable goods (△1.2 percent), semi-durable goods (△0.3 percent), and nondurable goods (△0.7 percent). Capital investment saw a 5.5 percent month-on-month increase, led by a strong growth in machinery [semiconductor equipment, etc.] (8.9 percent), despite a decrease in transportation equipment [automotive, etc.] (△3.2 percent). Despite an increase in civil works (6.8 percent), including the implementation of year-end SOC projects, construction fell by 2.7 percent, led by a significant decrease in building construction mostly in residential buildings (△5.6 percent). Despite increases in imports and the industrial production index of the mining and manufacturing industry, the cyclical change in the coincident index fell for the seventh consecutive month due to a sharp decline in construction completed. The recent economic recovery has been driven by manufacturing production and exports, coupled with a sluggish domestic consumption, which poses potential upside and downside risks going forward. On the production side, the recent improvement in exports, the rebound in key industries such as semiconductors, and the release of new mobile products are positive, but uncertainty over the recovery of major economies and the direction of their monetary policies, as well as continued geopolitical unrest and supply chain risks, continue to weigh on the economy. As for consumption and investment, slowing inflation and improving consumer sentiment, investment cooperation with major countries resulting from the government’s active sales effort and successful competition in high-tech are positive factors, while household debt, real estate PF risks and sluggish construction orders are negative factors.
※ Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance(moef.go.kr)
Trends by Industry
- Automotive
-
‘Auto Production in November 2023 Fell Year-on-Year Due to Last Year’s Base Effect’
→ Despite falling exports of auto parts, exports in December 2023 increased by 10.2 슬롯 사이트 추천 year-on-year due to strong exports of finished vehicles. Imports in November 2023 decreased by 22.6 슬롯 사이트 추천 year-on-year due to sluggish in demands for internal combustion engines and related parts. November 2023 production fell by 2.0 슬롯 사이트 추천 from a year ago due to the base effect of November 2022, when production increased after the easing of the parts supply problem.
- Shipbuilding
-
‘Exports Rose for Five Straight Months Amid Declining Production and Shipments and Falling Capacity Utilization Rate’
→ In November 2023, production and shipments fell due to the base effect of November 2022, when a large number of ships were shipped. Meanwhile, the industry’s production capacity increased and the capacity utilization rate continued to decrease. Despite decreases in production and shipments, ships ordered during the high price period were delivered. As a result, exports increased by 47.2 슬롯 사이트 추천 in December 2023 to grow for five months in a row. Imports fell by 33.2 슬롯 사이트 추천 in November 2023, imports of offshore structures and shipbuilding materials decreased overall.
- General machinery
-
‘Amid Sluggish Production, Exports Increased for Nine Straight Months, But at a Slower Pace’
→ Despite growing exports, production declined by 13.8 percent year-on-year in November 2023 due to the delayed recovery of domestic consumption. In December 2023, exports increased by 2.2 percent year-on-year as exports to the US continued growing and those to the Middle East shifted to an upward trend alongside weak exports to Japan and the EU. In November 2023, imports decreased by 4.7 percent year-on-year to decline for five straight months due to the delayed recovery of the manufacturing industry and the subsequent contraction in capital investment.
- Steel
-
‘Exports Continued the Downward Trend in December 2023, Affected by Falling Unit Prices’
→ As the downturn in the construction industry continue to dampen demands for bar steel, production increased by 17.5 슬롯 사이트 추천 year-on-year in November 2023, led by the recovery of the automotive, machinery, and shipbuilding industries and the base effect of the previous year's production disruption. Despite growing exports of plate steel and other products, exports fell by 4.7 슬롯 사이트 추천 from a year ago in December 2023 due to sluggish demands from China and lower unit prices. In November 2023, imports saw a decrease of 7.3 슬롯 사이트 추천 year-on-year as domestic consumption of major construction steel products including H-steel and rebar remained weak and unit import prices fell.
- Oil refining
-
‘Exports Fell in December 2023 as Weaker Refining Margins Dampen Unit Prices’
→ Production in November 2023 increased by 3.4 슬롯 사이트 추천 year-on-year as Korean refineries increase capacity utilization rates in light of improved domestic consumption and exports. Despite growing volume, exports declined by 3.5 슬롯 사이트 추천 year-on-year in December 2023 due to falling unit prices.
- Wireless communication devices
-
‘December 2023 Exports Fell by 2.7 슬롯 사이트 추천 Year-onYear as the Recovery of the Smartphone Market is Delayed Amid Expected Growth of Semiconductor Market and Related Industries in 2024’
→ Exports of finished smartphone products surged (84.6 슬롯 사이트 추천), but overall exports declined by 2.7 슬롯 사이트 추천 year-on-year in December 2023 alongside slower exports of parts (-8.3 슬롯 사이트 추천). The global smartphone market is expected to recover in 2024, driven by the possibility of interest rate cuts in major countries, the recovery of consumer sentiment boosted by stabilized oil prices and inflation, and the launch of new products (e.g., AI phones). Production saw a 5.4 슬롯 사이트 추천 year-on-year decrease in November 2023 but is gradually improving after three consecutive quarters of declining production and rising inventories. Imports grew by 42.8 슬롯 사이트 추천 from a year ago in November 2023, mostly in smartphones.
- Semiconductor
-
‘Semiconductor Industry Gradually Turning Upward’
→ In November 2023, the semiconductor production index stood at 154.2 to increase dramatically from a year ago (by 42.4 슬롯 사이트 추천) as well as from a month ago (by 12.8 슬롯 사이트 추천). In December 2023, exports reached USD 11.03 billion to exceed USD 10 billion for the first time in 2023.
- Display
-
‘Despite the Recovery in Q4, Annual Exports Fell Due to Economic Slowdown.
→ Production continued to decline in November 2023, affected by the ripple effect of LCD facility closures. In December, higher panel prices pushed exports upward by 10.9 슬롯 사이트 추천 to enable exports to grow for five months in a row. In 2023, annual exports of displays fell by 12.1 슬롯 사이트 추천 as global economic slowdown dampened demands.
* Please note that the latest data available in Statistics Korea are for the previous month in the case of exports and the month prior to the previous one for production.
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코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
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