Industry Trends
Industrial Trends
[2024 February] Industry Trends
2024.02.15
All Industries
Manufacturing and mining production rose by 3.3 percent in November as the growing demands for high-performance semiconductors led to strong gains in semiconductors (12.8 percent) and machinery and equipment (8.0 percent). Service sector output was flat amidst gains in wholesale and retail sales (1.0 percent) and slow financial services (△0.7 percent), transportation and warehousing (△1.4 percent), and leisure (△3.1 percent). Retail sales increased as sales of semi-durable goods declined (△0.4 percent), but sales of durable goods (2.6 percent) and non-durable goods (0.6 percent) grew. Investment in capital equipment declined on a monthly basis, with machinery [computer office equipment, etc.] (△1.5 percent) and transportation equipment [aircraft, etc.] (△5.7 percent) declining together. Construction investment decreased in construction projects (△3.0 percent) due to year-end move-ins, and civil engineering projects fell (△7.3 percent) due to poor performance of plant construction. The cyclical change in the coincident index fell for the sixth consecutive month due to a significant drop in completed construction projects, but the decline slowed on a monthly basis (△0.1 percent). Recently, the Korean economy has seen a gradual recovery driven by manufacturing production and exports, but upside and downside factors coexist. On the production side, the recent improvement in exports, recovery in key industries such as semiconductors and shipbuilding, and stabilization of international oil prices are positive, but uncertainty over the pace of recovery in major economies, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain risks are weighing on the economy. On the consumption and investment side, the recent slowdown in inflation, widespread expectations of an end to monetary tightening next year, and investment cooperation with major countries resulting from active summit diplomacy are upside factors, while household debt, real estate PF risks and sluggish construction orders are downside factors.
Korea's industrial activities increased by 0.5 피망 슬롯 in November 2023, reaffirming that the industry is recovering, driven by manufacturing production and exports.
| Subject | All industries | Mining & manufacturing |
Service | Retail sales | Equipment investment |
Construction completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly Change (%) | ▲0.5 | ▲3.3 | ∆0.1 | ▲1.0 | ∆2.6 | ∆4.1 |
Manufacturing and mining production rose by 3.3 percent in November as the growing demands for high-performance semiconductors led to strong gains in semiconductors (12.8 percent) and machinery and equipment (8.0 percent). Service sector output was flat amidst gains in wholesale and retail sales (1.0 percent) and slow financial services (△0.7 percent), transportation and warehousing (△1.4 percent), and leisure (△3.1 percent). Retail sales increased as sales of semi-durable goods declined (△0.4 percent), but sales of durable goods (2.6 percent) and non-durable goods (0.6 percent) grew. Investment in capital equipment declined on a monthly basis, with machinery [computer office equipment, etc.] (△1.5 percent) and transportation equipment [aircraft, etc.] (△5.7 percent) declining together. Construction investment decreased in construction projects (△3.0 percent) due to year-end move-ins, and civil engineering projects fell (△7.3 percent) due to poor performance of plant construction. The cyclical change in the coincident index fell for the sixth consecutive month due to a significant drop in completed construction projects, but the decline slowed on a monthly basis (△0.1 percent). Recently, the Korean economy has seen a gradual recovery driven by manufacturing production and exports, but upside and downside factors coexist. On the production side, the recent improvement in exports, recovery in key industries such as semiconductors and shipbuilding, and stabilization of international oil prices are positive, but uncertainty over the pace of recovery in major economies, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain risks are weighing on the economy. On the consumption and investment side, the recent slowdown in inflation, widespread expectations of an end to monetary tightening next year, and investment cooperation with major countries resulting from active summit diplomacy are upside factors, while household debt, real estate PF risks and sluggish construction orders are downside factors.
※ Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance(moef.go.kr)
Trends by Industry
- Automotive
-
‘Strong Sales of Finished Cars in November Drove Exports to Surpass USD 6 Billion for the First Time in Five Months’
→ Domestic consumption ended the falling trend in November with a 1.2 피망 슬롯 year-on-year increase driven by the effect of new model releases and strong SUV sales. November exports rose by 17.0 피망 슬롯 year-on-year as exports of finished vehicles reached USD 6 billion for the first time in five months since June. Production increased by 2.8 피망 슬롯 year-on-year in October, driven by increases in high value-added vehicles, including SUVs and EVs.
- Shipbuilding
-
‘Production and Shipments Declined in November Due to Base Effect and Capacity Utilization Rate Fall’
→ In November, cumulative orders (year-on-year) won by China, Japan and Korea amounted to 22.09 million CGT (-5.0 피망 슬롯), 4.29 million CGT (-22.3 피망 슬롯), and 9.63 million CGT (-41.0 피망 슬롯), respectively, with Korea continuing to receive selective orders. Production increased, resulting in cumulative deliveries of 8.08 million CGT in November, up 7.1 피망 슬롯 from a year ago. In October, production decreased by 4.1 피망 슬롯 year-on-year and capacity utilization rate fell by 13.2 피망 슬롯 from a year ago, due to the capacity expansion of major shipbuilders and the base effect of high utilization rate in the same month last year. Exports rose by 38.5 피망 슬롯 in November as orders placed since 2021 at higher prices were delivered. Imports decreased by 2.4 피망 슬롯 in October, reflecting strong imports of ship engines and slow imports of ships and ship parts.
- General machinery
-
‘Production Slowed Further in October, and Exports Rose for Eight Straight Months’
→ Production in October fell by 13.3 percent year-on-year and 8.3 percent month-on-month as domestic consumption remained sluggish despite solid export growth. Despite slow exports to the EU and the Middle East, November exports rose by 14.1 percent from a year ago, led by a strong increase in exports to the United States. In October, imports continued to decline for the fourth consecutive month, falling by 0.8 percent year-on-year, as the lengthened slowdown in the manufacturing sector dampened capital investment.
- Steel
-
‘October Production Grew Month-on-Month, Exports Plummeted on Falling Unit Prices’
→Steel production increased by 26.3 percent year-on-year in October, despite sluggish demands for steel bars, due to the base effect of the previous year's production disruptions. Exports in November fell by 11.1 percent year-on-year due to the impact of high export unit prices in the previous year, along with continued sluggishness of China's real estate market and weak domestic consumption in major customers such as the US, EU, and Japan. In October, imports decreased by 0.3 percent year-on-year due to a wider decline of imports from Japan and falling unit prices.
- Oil refining
-
‘Exports Started Declining in November on Lower Unit Prices Despite Growing Volume’
→ October production rose by 5.5 피망 슬롯 year-on-year with Korean refineries increasing their capacity utilization rates. In November, exports fell by 4.4 피망 슬롯 year-on-year due to lower unit prices.
- Wireless communication devices
-
‘November Exports Grew by 8.4 피망 슬롯 Year-on-Year as Global ICT Recovery Begins in Full Swing’
→ The global markets of semiconductors and ICT products such as smartphones, computers, and servers are expected to begin recovering in full-scale from Q1 2024, after sharply shrinking from Q3 2023. In October, production fell by 22.2 피망 슬롯 year-on-year and shipments declined by 14.2 피망 슬롯, while capacity utilization decreased by 22.7 피망 슬롯 and inventories fell by 12.4 피망 슬롯. Imports saw a year-on-year decrease of 10.4 피망 슬롯 in October, led by strong imports of smartphone parts.
- Semiconductor
-
‘Semiconductor Industry Shows Signs of Ending the Decline’
→In October, the semiconductor production index was 142.0, up 14.7 피망 슬롯 year-on-year, but down 11.4 피망 슬롯 month-on-month. November exports reached USD 9.52 billion, the second-best record in 2023, up 12.9 피망 슬롯 from a year ago. The recent increase in semiconductor exports is believed to be the effect of production cuts by semiconductor manufacturers.
- Display
-
‘Exports Continued Increasing Based on the Growth of Global High-Value-Added Panel Market’
Despite the LCD production cuts, production decline in October was slower than expected due to the effect of new smartphone releases. In November, panel exports increased by 5.9 피망 슬롯 with the expansion of the global high-value-added panel market, enabling exports to grow for four straight months.
* Please note that the latest data available in Statistics Korea are for the previous month in the case of exports and the month prior to the previous one for production.
Verify KIET Email Address
Please enter the security text below
to prevent email collection
Check KIET employee information
Please check the information of the person in charge.
접수완료
연구과제 제안이 접수되었습니다.
접수완료
신청이 접수되었습니다.
Seminars
View Summary
월간 KIET 산업경제
코로나19 발생 이후 제조업 고용 변화: 중간 점검
코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
KIET Check employee information
The following information is provided.
inform@kiet.re.kr
Employee directory access verification
Please complete the CAPTCHA below.
KIET Video
[전지적키에트시점] (Eng sub)심상치 않은
국내 대기업 움직임??
KIET 시점에서 보는 미래 로봇 산업 전망은
어떨까요?
경제전문가가 알려드립니다!
(산업연구원 박상수 실장)