Insofar as we define globalization as the consistent growth in the volume of global trade relative to worldGDP, we reasonably conclude that the second phase of globalization, which lasted for five decades sincethe signing of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) in 1947, effectively ended with the globalfinancial crisis of 2007-2008. Anti-globalization sentiment has taken root in many advanced countriessince the global financial crisis and has conspired with an intensifying US-China rivalry to stem the erstwhilegrowth in trade relative to world GDP. The United States, the onetime champion of postwar globalization,has recently embraced a New Washington Consensus that represents a sharp departure from the originalof the 1990s, effectively putting an end to globalization.

The end of globalization means an end to a chapter in the history of global trade. It remains to be seen howthe post-globalization trade environment will evolve. The actions of various countries over the next decadewill ultimately shape this landscape. The United States and China will play significantly greater roles thanother countries in the process, but the fact that no single country can claim unchallenged hegemony overthe global economy also leaves room for concerted actions from smaller countries. The end of globalizationis particularly significant to Korea, which has achieved a remarkable economic transformation thanks tothe success of an export-led growth strategy. But real export growth in Korea has consistently fallen belowits economic growth rates over the last decade, and we can conclude that export-led growth is no longer viablefor Korea. Escalating tensions between the United States and China are set to worsen trade conditionsworldwide. Such conditions could lead to the fragmentation of the global economy into different blocs,greatly damaging the Korean economy, which relies heavily on trade with both countries. Several studiesshow in common that the US-China decoupling will have a significant negative impact on the global economy,and that Korea will be one of the countries hit the hardest. As a chief beneficiary of free trade and theworld’s eighth-largest trading country, Korea has practical interests, a moral obligation, and the potentialto help ameliorate worsening global trade conditions. By making it known that the fragmentation of theglobal economy is not in its interest, Korea ought to partner with countries that share the same perspectiveand mobilize international support toward maintaining an open, non-discriminatory, and free trade orderagainst protectionist and fragmenting forces. Expressing and maintaining a commitment to free trade canalso help Korea minimize the impact to its economy of the eventual US-China decoupling. On the domesticfront, Korea should also foster domestic demand, while also taking steps to better manage the risks of atumultuous chapter in the history of the global economy.